• 5.5 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 175.7/game vs a 185.9 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 5 there (54 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.8 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Finals Week 1: 15 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.