0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 26.6/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 0.4 there (52 gm)
vs them: averages 0.5 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (73%)🌬 16.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Matvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
83.3
51
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Mat 83.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
33
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Mat 0.8/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.5
86
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Mat 31.5/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
26
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Mat 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
38
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Mat 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
23
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Mat 0.0/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
57
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Mat 0.4/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.1
53
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Mat 28.1/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Mat83.3
51
GLD1851.3
94
Mat 83.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Mat0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Points
26.6per game · league avg 23.7
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Points
At McDonald Jones Stadium0.4(52)+0.2
Everywhere else0.2(55)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(8)-0.3
Dry games0.3(99)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Points
Avg diff
+0.5
Avg diff %
+213%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLGriffin Neame0.000%
08-06NQLKai O'Donnell0.000%
08-06NQLTom Chester1.60-100%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue1.34+200%
08-06NQLSoni Luke0.40-100%
08-06NQLJason Taumalolo0.24+1900%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt0.40-100%
08-06NQLReuben Cotter0.40-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Mat's. Computed from this app's own records.