151.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 147.6 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 157.0
−15.8 opponent leak — they concede 1511.1/game vs a 1686.6 league average
vs them: averages 136.8 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 9: 324 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
CRO concede · Run Metres
1511.1per game · league avg 1686.6
#17 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Run Metres
At Ocean Protect Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else133.9(133)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)152.0(13)+20.0
Dry games132.0(120)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs CRO · Run Metres
Avg diff
-2.9
Avg diff %
-3%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09SGIClinton Gutherson154.2204+32%
08-09SGIValentine Holmes129.3143+11%
08-09SGIRyan Couchman131.9153+16%
08-09SGISetu Tu154.8170+10%
08-02SOUAlex Johnston135.276-44%
08-02SOUCampbell Graham152.4170+12%
07-26MANJason Saab135.292-32%
07-26MANTaniela Paseka130.392-29%
Similar = season average within ±22.1 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.