6.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.5 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 7.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 351.7/game vs a 344.7 league average
+0.6 at this ground — averages 6.9 there (9 gm)
vs them: averages 1.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 20 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o5.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joshvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
44.4
23
Run Metresunfavorable
38
1652.5
Josh 44.4/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
44
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Josh 1.1/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.5
19
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Josh 5.5/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
38
4.0
Josh 0.0/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Josh 0.0/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Josh 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
28
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Josh 0.1/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.5
33
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Josh 17.5/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.6
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Josh44.4
23
DOL1652.5
38
Josh 44.4/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Josh1.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Tackles
351.7per game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackles
At 4 Pines Park6.9(9)+1.8
Everywhere else5.1(10)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)2.0(1)-4.2
Dry games6.2(18)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs DOL · Tackles
Avg diff
+2.4
Avg diff %
+45%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIGrant Anderson5.46+11%
08-08BRIJosiah Karapani4.53-33%
08-08BRIDeine Mariner6.19+47%
08-08BRIReece Walsh4.79+93%
07-31SGIClinton Gutherson6.17+15%
07-31SGILyhkan King-Togia5.124+374%
07-19NQLBraidon Burns5.43-44%
07-19NQLEthan King4.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Josh's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown19.5