48.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 44.4 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 55.2
−1.0 opponent leak — they concede 1652.5/game vs a 1687.8 league average
+3.9 at this ground — averages 52.7 there (9 gm)
vs them: averages 35.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o44.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Joshvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
44.4
23
Run Metresunfavorable
38
1652.5
Josh 44.4/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
44
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Josh 1.1/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.5
19
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Josh 5.5/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
38
4.0
Josh 0.0/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Josh 0.0/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Josh 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
28
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Josh 0.1/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.5
33
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Josh 17.5/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.6
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Josh44.4
23
DOL1652.5
38
Josh 44.4/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Josh1.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Run Metres
1652.5per game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At 4 Pines Park52.7(9)+10.4
Everywhere else42.3(10)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-49.8
Dry games49.8(18)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs DOL · Run Metres
Avg diff
+2.3
Avg diff %
+8%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIBilly Walters38.076+100%
08-08BRIVa'a Semu41.456+35%
07-31SGIDaniel Atkinson50.70-100%
07-31SGIKyle Flanagan37.929-23%
07-31SGIJosh Kerr49.694+89%
07-19NQLSam McIntyre40.537-9%
07-19NQLMatthew Lodge50.729-43%
07-11CROBraydon Trindall41.748+15%
Similar = season average within ±6.7 of Josh's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown96.5