• 3.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.8 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.5
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 101.3/game vs a 93.4 league average
• +1.4 at this ground — averages 4.5 there (13 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.