• 6.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.7 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.8
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 158.8/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 5.9 there (13 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 15 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.