• 1.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.9 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.9
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 10.3/game vs a 12.2 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 0.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.