• 5.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.5 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 5.0
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 213.7/game vs a 213.6 league average
• wet forecast: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 4.3 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.