• 1.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.5
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 10.3/game vs a 12.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• −0.4 wet forecast — averages 0.9 in the wet (8 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.7 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.