• 6.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.7
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 200.8/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −2.0 at this ground — averages 4.6 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.4 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.