• 3.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.5
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 145.2/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.0 at this ground — averages 3.4 there (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 3.8 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Opening Round: 9 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.