• 0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 13.4/game vs a 12.8 league average
• −0.4 at this ground — averages 0 there (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.1 over 10 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.