• 2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 13.5/game vs a 12.2 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.