• 7.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.5 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.3
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 209.4/game vs a 213.6 league average
• −1.3 at this ground — averages 6.5 there (27 gm)
• vs them: averages 9.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.