• 8.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 8.3 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.5
• +0.6 opponent leak — they concede 166.4/game vs a 155.4 league average
• −5.4 at this ground — averages 3 there (5 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 15 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.