• 17.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 17.6 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 16.9
• +1.4 opponent leak — they concede 399.5/game vs a 369 league average
• −8.3 at this ground — averages 9 there (5 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.