• 2.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.8 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 2.8
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 50.6/game vs a 56.6 league average

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.