• 4.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.8 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 6 4.8
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 166.4/game vs a 155.4 league average

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.