• 2.9 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.9 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.9
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 60.4/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −1.2 at this ground — averages 1.7 there (21 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.6 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.