• 11.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.1 (9 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.8
• +0.3 opponent leak — they concede 219.2/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +0.3 at this ground — averages 11.2 there (21 gm)
• vs them: averages 15.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.