• 4.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.6 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.9
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 51/game vs a 56.6 league average
• −0.8 at this ground — averages 3.9 there (24 gm)
• vs them: averages 1.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.