• 4.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.0
• −0.5 opponent leak — they concede 83/game vs a 93.4 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 4.7 over 3 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.