• 2.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.6 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.8
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 51/game vs a 56.6 league average
• +0.6 at this ground — averages 3.2 there (9 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 7 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.