• 7.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.4 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.9
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 219.6/game vs a 213.6 league average
• +1.3 at this ground — averages 8.6 there (9 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 2: 16 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.