• 36.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 36.1 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 36.3
• +1.0 opponent leak — they concede 354.1/game vs a 344.9 league average
• +3.0 at this ground — averages 39.2 there (33 gm)
• vs them: averages 36.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.