26.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 27.1 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.8
+2.0 opponent leak — they concede 1810.8/game vs a 1686.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 14.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 97 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Run Metres
1810.8per game · league avg 1686.6
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At CommBank Stadium15.0(2)-9.3
Everywhere else24.3(46)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)12.0(1)-12.2
Dry games24.2(47)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PAR · Run Metres
Avg diff
+12.0
Avg diff %
+39%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-23PENFreddy Lussick26.780+200%
07-05MANJake Simpkin25.641+60%
06-25SOULiam Le Blanc26.40-100%
06-13CBROwen Pattie30.234+12%
06-13CBRJayden Brailey30.675+145%
05-16MELTrent Toelau29.90-100%
05-16MELDavvy Moale30.891+196%
05-08NQLRobert Derby25.00-100%
Similar = season average within ±4.1 of Soni's. Computed from this app's own records.