0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4/game vs a 4.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.3 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (73%)🌬 16.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Keanovs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
201.1
100
Run Metresfavorable
63
1715.7
Keano 201.1/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.7
97
Tackle Breaksfavorable
69
33.7
Keano 4.7/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.3
9
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Keano 3.3/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
51
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Keano 0.1/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
90
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Keano 0.6/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
95
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Keano 0.8/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
99
Offloadsfavorable
63
10.0
Keano 2.5/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
46.0
84
Post Contact Metresfavorable
63
558.0
Keano 46.0/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Keano201.1
100
NEW1715.7
63
Keano 201.1/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Keano4.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Tries
4.0per game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tries
At McDonald Jones Stadium0.0(1)-0.2
Everywhere else0.2(50)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(2)+0.3
Dry games0.2(49)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Tries
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
-5%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBRMatthew Timoko0.40-100%
08-09CBREthan Sanders0.10-100%
08-09CBRJed Stuart0.31+260%
08-09CBRSimi Sasagi0.52+300%
08-09CBRXavier Savage0.60-100%
08-09CBREthan Strange0.30-100%
08-09CBRKaeo Weekes0.50-100%
08-09CBRCorey Horsburgh0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Keano's. Computed from this app's own records.