• 16.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 15.8 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 18.2
• +1.1 opponent leak — they concede 368.1/game vs a 344.9 league average
• −7.5 at this ground — averages 9.3 there (6 gm)

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.