20.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 19.9 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 21.6
−0.5 opponent leak — they concede 181.3/game vs a 185.9 league average
−5.4 at this ground — averages 15.1 there (19 gm)
vs them: averages 8.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 10: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 19.5
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 25 · 2026-08-20 19:50☁ 14.5°C☂ 0mm (31%)🌬 11.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Sualauvivs all playersStatPEN concedePer game
197.3
99
Run Metresunfavorable
25
1576.6
Sualauvi 197.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
5.7
99
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
25
31.4
Sualauvi 5.7/game
PEN concedes 31.4/game · league avg 32.8
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.7
15
Tacklesneutral
100
368.1
Sualauvi 4.7/game
PEN concedes 368.1/game · league avg 344.9
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
96
Triesunfavorable
0
2.6
Sualauvi 0.8/game
PEN concedes 2.6/game · league avg 4.2
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
93
Try Assistsunfavorable
0
2.4
Sualauvi 0.6/game
PEN concedes 2.4/game · league avg 3.5
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.0
98
Line Breaksunfavorable
6
4.1
Sualauvi 1.0/game
PEN concedes 4.1/game · league avg 5.1
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.1
91
Offloadsunfavorable
6
8.1
Sualauvi 1.1/game
PEN concedes 8.1/game · league avg 9.7
#16 of 17 clubs most conceded
40.0
75
Post Contact Metresneutral
56
548.9
Sualauvi 40.0/game
PEN concedes 548.9/game · league avg 544.2
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Sualauvi197.3
99
PEN1576.6
25
Sualauvi 197.3/game
PEN concedes 1576.6/game · league avg 1686.6
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Sualauvi5.7
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PEN concede · Runs
181.3per game · league avg 185.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Runs
At AAMI Park15.1(19)+0.8
Everywhere else14.3(27)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)17.6(5)+3.4
Dry games14.2(41)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PEN · Runs
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
0%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-23PARBrian Kelly18.123+27%
07-23PARIsaiah Iongi18.823+23%
07-16BRIJosiah Karapani17.819+7%
07-03SOUKeaon Koloamatangi17.717-4%
06-27NQLBraidon Burns19.520+3%
06-27NQLScott Drinkwater19.018-5%
06-07WSTJahream Bula17.811-38%
06-07WSTTerrell May17.115-12%
Similar = season average within ±3.0 of Sualauvi's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry12.5