6.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 6.1
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 189.9/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 3.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ·opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
← the price your bookie is offering
Splits · o6.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Aramavs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
57.9
34
Run Metresneutral
63
1715.7
Arama 57.9/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.3
73
Tackle Breaksfavorable
69
33.7
Arama 2.3/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.3
81
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Arama 28.3/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
78
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Arama 0.3/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Arama 0.0/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
76
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Arama 0.4/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
81
Offloadsfavorable
63
10.0
Arama 0.8/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
20.3
38
Post Contact Metresneutral
63
558.0
Arama 20.3/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Arama57.9
34
NEW1715.7
63
Arama 57.9/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Arama2.3
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Runs
189.9per game · league avg 185.9
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At McDonald Jones Stadium3.0(1)-1.4
Everywhere else4.4(34)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)6.3(3)+2.1
Dry games4.2(32)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Runs
Avg diff
-0.7
Avg diff %
-9%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBRDaine Laurie5.95-15%
08-09CBREthan Sanders6.16-2%
08-09CBRJosh Papalii5.610+79%
08-09CBRMorgan Smithies7.09+28%
08-01BRIAdam Reynolds6.50-100%
08-01BRIBen Talty8.19+11%
07-24SYDReece Robson5.44-26%
07-24SYDDaly Cherry-Evans8.24-51%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Arama's. Computed from this app's own records.