1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.9 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 10/game vs a 9.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 1.8 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (73%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tinovs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
145.3
86
Run Metresfavorable
63
1715.7
Tino 145.3/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.8
61
Tackle Breaksneutral
69
33.7
Tino 1.8/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.5
87
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Tino 31.5/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
31
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Tino 0.1/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
68
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Tino 0.2/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
44
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Tino 0.1/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
84
Offloadsfavorable
63
10.0
Tino 0.9/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
57.9
96
Post Contact Metresfavorable
63
558.0
Tino 57.9/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresfavorable
Tino145.3
86
NEW1715.7
63
Tino 145.3/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Tino1.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Offloads
10.0per game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Offloads
At McDonald Jones Stadium2.0(3)+1.0
Everywhere else1.0(98)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(9)
Dry games1.0(92)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NEW · Offloads
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+102%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBRMatthew Timoko1.21-15%
08-09CBREthan Sanders0.30-100%
08-09CBRJed Stuart0.21+350%
08-09CBRSimi Sasagi1.02+100%
08-09CBRXavier Savage0.21+433%
08-09CBREthan Strange0.70-100%
08-09CBRKaeo Weekes0.62+250%
08-09CBRCorey Horsburgh1.30-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tino's. Computed from this app's own records.