9.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 9.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 10.1
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 189.9/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 14.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 9.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 17°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.5 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jaydenvs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
108.7
67
Run Metresneutral
63
1715.7
Jayden 108.7/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
78
Tackle Breaksfavorable
69
33.7
Jayden 2.5/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
17.9
55
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Jayden 17.9/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
88
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Jayden 0.5/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
92
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Jayden 0.6/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
86
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Jayden 0.6/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
80
Offloadsfavorable
63
10.0
Jayden 0.8/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
21.7
40
Post Contact Metresneutral
63
558.0
Jayden 21.7/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jayden108.7
67
NEW1715.7
63
Jayden 108.7/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksfavorable
Jayden2.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Runs
189.9per game · league avg 185.9
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At McDonald Jones Stadium15.0(3)+2.7
Everywhere else12.3(93)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)15.9(7)+3.8
Dry games12.1(89)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NEW · Runs
Avg diff
+2.7
Avg diff %
+29%
Hit rate
7/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBRJed Stuart9.613+35%
08-09CBRAta Mariota9.713+34%
08-09CBREthan Strange8.99+1%
08-01BRIBen Talty8.19+11%
08-01BRIGrant Anderson8.514+64%
08-01BRIEzra Mam9.416+70%
07-24SYDDaly Cherry-Evans8.24-51%
07-24SYDSpencer Leniu8.915+69%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jayden's. Computed from this app's own records.