• 116.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 112.4 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 123.5
• +10.5 opponent leak — they concede 1838.8/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• +25.1 at this ground — averages 141.9 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 105.4 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.