0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
−0.0 opponent leak — they concede 22.6/game vs a 23.7 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 1.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o0.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (73%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jaylanvs all playersStatNEW concedePer game
39.0
20
Run Metresneutral
63
1715.7
Jaylan 39.0/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
25
Tackle Breaksneutral
69
33.7
Jaylan 0.6/game
NEW concedes 33.7/game · league avg 32.8
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.8
16
Tacklesunfavorable
19
335.0
Jaylan 4.8/game
NEW concedes 335.0/game · league avg 344.9
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
50
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Jaylan 0.1/game
NEW concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
51
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.4
Jaylan 0.1/game
NEW concedes 3.4/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
32
Line Breaksunfavorable
25
4.5
Jaylan 0.1/game
NEW concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
45
Offloadsneutral
63
10.0
Jaylan 0.3/game
NEW concedes 10.0/game · league avg 9.7
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
9.4
18
Post Contact Metresneutral
63
558.0
Jaylan 9.4/game
NEW concedes 558.0/game · league avg 544.2
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Jaylan39.0
20
NEW1715.7
63
Jaylan 39.0/game
NEW concedes 1715.7/game · league avg 1686.6
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Jaylan0.6
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NEW concede · Points
22.6per game · league avg 23.7
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Points
At McDonald Jones Stadium2.0(2)+1.2
Everywhere else0.8(35)
Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(3)-0.9
Dry games0.9(34)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NEW · Points
Avg diff
+1.1
Avg diff %
+68%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CBREthan Strange1.30-100%
08-09CBRZac Hosking1.14+280%
08-09CBRSimi Sasagi2.08+300%
08-09CBRMatthew Timoko1.40-100%
08-09CBRCorey Horsburgh0.40-100%
08-09CBRJoseph Tapine0.000%
08-09CBRJed Stuart1.14+260%
08-09CBRAta Mariota0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jaylan's. Computed from this app's own records.