• 0.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.2 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.2
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 33.5/game vs a 32.8 league average
• +2.0 at this ground — averages 2.2 there (9 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.