18.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 18.0 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 18.0
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186.4/game vs a 185.9 league average
vs them: averages 19.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o18.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.6°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.1 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jackvs all playersStatMAN concedePer game
161.8
94
Run Metresunfavorable
31
1613.3
Jack 161.8/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
78
Tackle Breaksneutral
38
31.9
Jack 2.5/game
MAN concedes 31.9/game · league avg 32.7
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
15.6
48
Tacklesneutral
56
347.8
Jack 15.6/game
MAN concedes 347.8/game · league avg 344.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
82
Triesunfavorable
25
3.8
Jack 0.4/game
MAN concedes 3.8/game · league avg 4.2
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
97
Try Assistsunfavorable
25
3.1
Jack 0.9/game
MAN concedes 3.1/game · league avg 3.5
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
67
Line Breaksunfavorable
19
4.5
Jack 0.3/game
MAN concedes 4.5/game · league avg 5.1
#14 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.2
93
Offloadsfavorable
100
11.6
Jack 1.2/game
MAN concedes 11.6/game · league avg 9.7
#1 of 17 clubs most conceded
52.8
92
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
31
514.9
Jack 52.8/game
MAN concedes 514.9/game · league avg 544.6
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Jack161.8
94
MAN1613.3
31
Jack 161.8/game
MAN concedes 1613.3/game · league avg 1687.8
#12 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Jack2.5
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MAN concede · Runs
186.4per game · league avg 185.9
#7 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park—(0)
Everywhere else16.1(50)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)15.7(6)-0.5
Dry games16.2(44)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MAN · Runs
Avg diff
+1.6
Avg diff %
+9%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08MELSualauvi Faalogo19.922+11%
07-26CROWilliam Kennedy15.413-16%
07-26CRORonaldo Mulitalo16.618+8%
07-26CROSione Katoa18.721+12%
07-26CROKL Iro15.517+10%
07-19GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui15.520+29%
07-19GLDDean Ieremia15.815-5%
07-12NQLBraidon Burns19.524+23%
Similar = season average within ±2.7 of Jack's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5