• 7.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 6.7 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 9.2
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 333/game vs a 344.7 league average
• −1.9 at this ground — averages 5.9 there (23 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.0 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 28 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.