0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.8/game vs a 4.2 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (27 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Tries
4.8per game · league avg 4.2
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At CommBank Stadium0.3(27)
Everywhere else0.3(53)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(3)-0.3
Dry games0.3(77)
Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Tries
Avg diff
-0.0
Avg diff %
-64%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDAJ Brimson0.20-100%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika0.10-100%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia0.20-100%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita0.40-100%
08-06GLDPhillip Sami0.72+186%
08-06GLDJayden Campbell0.50-100%
08-06GLDKeano Kini0.20-100%
08-06GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Bailey's. Computed from this app's own records.