2.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.7
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 39.7/game vs a 32.7 league average
−0.8 at this ground — averages 1.2 there (5 gm)
vs them: averages 2.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 12: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Tackle Breaks
39.7per game · league avg 32.7
#1 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At CommBank Stadium1.2(5)-0.1
Everywhere else1.3(75)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)3.0(1)+1.7
Dry games1.3(79)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs PAR · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.8
Avg diff %
+55%
Hit rate
7/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUJack Wighton2.04+100%
08-08SOUBrandon Smith1.12+85%
08-08SOUAlex Johnston2.45+107%
08-08SOUTallis Duncan3.41-70%
08-08SOUCody Walker1.42+41%
08-08SOUAshton Ward1.02+100%
08-08SOUMatthew Dufty3.24+27%
08-08SOUKeaon Koloamatangi2.03+50%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Thomas's. Computed from this app's own records.