28.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 28.1 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 28.1
+3.2 opponent leak — they concede 605.3/game vs a 544.2 league average
−5.7 at this ground — averages 22.4 there (52 gm)
vs them: averages 18.4 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 4: 51 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o28.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 16.5°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.8 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Matvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
83.3
51
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Mat 83.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
33
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Mat 0.8/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
31.5
86
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Mat 31.5/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
26
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Mat 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
38
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Mat 0.0/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
23
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Mat 0.0/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
57
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Mat 0.4/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
28.1
53
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Mat 28.1/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Mat83.3
51
GLD1851.3
94
Mat 83.3/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Mat0.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Post Contact Metres
605.3per game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At McDonald Jones Stadium22.4(52)-4.3
Everywhere else26.7(55)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)22.3(8)-2.6
Dry games24.8(99)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+2.8
Avg diff %
+11%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLJohn Bateman26.030+15%
08-06NQLZac Laybutt27.441+50%
08-06NQLGriffin Neame28.931+7%
08-06NQLJaxon Purdue28.712-58%
08-06NQLCoen Hess30.510-67%
08-01WARAli Leiataua29.147+61%
08-01WARAlofiana Khan-Pereira24.010-58%
08-01WARJacob Laban26.362+136%
Similar = season average within ±4.2 of Mat's. Computed from this app's own records.