1.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.7
+0.2 opponent leak — they concede 605.3/game vs a 544.2 league average
+4.6 at this ground — averages 6.3 there (57 gm)
vs them: averages 6.9 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 11 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 1.5
Game conditionsMcDonald Jones Stadium · NewcastleRound 24 · 2026-08-16 14:00☁ 17°C☂ 0.3mm (64%)🌬 16.5 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Phoenixvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game
13.8
6
Run Metresneutral
94
1851.3
Phoenix 13.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
7
Tackle Breaksneutral
88
34.8
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 34.8/game · league avg 32.8
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
43.9
99
Tacklesneutral
38
340.0
Phoenix 43.9/game
GLD concedes 340.0/game · league avg 344.9
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
51
Triesneutral
75
4.8
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.8/game · league avg 4.2
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
39
Try Assistsneutral
75
4.0
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 4.0/game · league avg 3.5
#5 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
23
Line Breaksneutral
63
5.2
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 5.2/game · league avg 5.1
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
15
Offloadsneutral
88
11.2
Phoenix 0.1/game
GLD concedes 11.2/game · league avg 9.7
#3 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.7
3
Post Contact Metresneutral
94
605.3
Phoenix 1.7/game
GLD concedes 605.3/game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Phoenix13.8
6
GLD1851.3
94
Phoenix 13.8/game
GLD concedes 1851.3/game · league avg 1686.6
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Phoenix0.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
GLD concede · Post Contact Metres
605.3per game · league avg 544.2
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At McDonald Jones Stadium6.3(57)+0.8
Everywhere else5.5(66)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)7.2(13)+1.4
Dry games5.7(110)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs GLD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+2.4
Avg diff %
+156%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06NQLEthan King1.95+167%
07-12MELJosiah Pahulu1.19+700%
06-26CBYBailey Hayward2.85+82%
06-20PENBilly Scott1.55+225%
06-14WSTJosese Lanyon2.67+169%
06-14WSTCharlie Murray1.90-100%
06-06BRIBen Hunt2.64+56%
05-23MANBrandon Wakeham2.21-55%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Phoenix's. Computed from this app's own records.