0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 29.3/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.1 at this ground — averages 0.6 there (19 gm)
vs them: averages 0.9 over 9 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 16: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Points
29.3per game · league avg 23.7
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At CommBank Stadium0.6(19)+0.3
Everywhere else0.4(95)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(8)+0.6
Dry games0.4(106)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs SGI · Points
Avg diff
-0.5
Avg diff %
-71%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROAddin Fonua-Blake0.20-100%
08-09CROBriton Nikora0.80-100%
08-09CROJesse Ramien1.74+133%
08-09CROMawene Hiroti0.60-100%
08-09CROBlayke Brailey0.50-100%
08-09CROJesse Colquhoun0.70-100%
08-09CROWilliam Kennedy1.80-100%
08-09CROTeig Wilton1.60-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Alex's. Computed from this app's own records.