• 8.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 7.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 8.6
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 345.9/game vs a 344.9 league average
• −1.6 at this ground — averages 6.4 there (12 gm)
• vs them: averages 5.2 over 5 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 13: 24 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.