• 0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 26.7/game vs a 23.7 league average
• +0.6 at this ground — averages 1.1 there (48 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.6 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 14: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.