• 0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
• −0.2 opponent leak — they concede 15.1/game vs a 23.7 league average
• −0.6 at this ground — averages 0 there (4 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.5 over 8 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.