19.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 18.4 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 19.8
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 351.7/game vs a 344.9 league average
+0.3 at this ground — averages 19.3 there (46 gm)
vs them: averages 22.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▲projection ▲
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 44 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o18.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.5°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 7.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Ethanvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
72.2
43
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Ethan 72.2/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
38
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Ethan 0.9/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
18.4
56
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Ethan 18.4/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
30
Triesneutral
44
4.0
Ethan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
56
3.5
Ethan 0.0/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
28
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Ethan 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.2
39
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Ethan 0.2/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
24.7
47
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Ethan 24.7/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Ethan72.2
43
DOL1652.5
38
Ethan 72.2/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Ethan0.9
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Tackles
351.7per game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackles
At 4 Pines Park19.3(46)+0.9
Everywhere else18.4(79)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)21.1(9)+2.5
Dry games18.6(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Tackles
Avg diff
-6.4
Avg diff %
-33%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIEzra Mam17.016-6%
08-08BRIBen Hunt20.60-100%
07-31SGIKyle Flanagan18.819+1%
07-31SGIDaniel Atkinson18.90-100%
07-31SGILuciano Leilua18.50-100%
07-19NQLJason Taumalolo18.928+48%
07-19NQLSoni Luke16.815-11%
07-19NQLSam McIntyre19.520+3%
Similar = season average within ±2.8 of Ethan's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown19.5