24.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 25.6 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 22.7
−0.5 opponent leak — they concede 1652.5/game vs a 1686.6 league average
+7.7 at this ground — averages 32.1 there (27 gm)
vs them: averages 41.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 86 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · 25.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.5°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 7.6 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Jakevs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
25.6
13
Run Metresunfavorable
38
1652.5
Jake 25.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.4
18
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Jake 0.4/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
37.9
95
Tacklesfavorable
69
351.7
Jake 37.9/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Triesunfavorable
44
4.0
Jake 0.0/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.3
75
Try Assistsneutral
56
3.5
Jake 0.3/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
23
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Jake 0.1/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
23
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Jake 0.1/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
8.1
15
Post Contact Metresunfavorable
44
539.6
Jake 8.1/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresunfavorable
Jake25.6
13
DOL1652.5
38
Jake 25.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Jake0.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Run Metres
1652.5per game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Run Metres
At 4 Pines Park32.1(27)+6.4
Everywhere else25.7(67)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)20.4(8)-7.8
Dry games28.2(86)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Run Metres
Avg diff
+3.1
Avg diff %
+13%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIBen Hunt25.30-100%
08-08BRIThomas Duffy23.350+114%
07-19NQLReed Mahoney28.613-54%
07-19NQLSoni Luke27.131+14%
07-11CROTuku Hau Tapuha29.260+105%
07-11CROHohepa Puru22.053+141%
06-27WARLuke Metcalf23.70-100%
06-12SYDBenaiah Ioelu23.020-13%
Similar = season average within ±3.8 of Jake's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown96.5