• 0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 3.2/game vs a 3.9 league average
• +1.1 at this ground — averages 1.3 there (6 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.8 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.