14.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 14.8 (17 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 14.3
−0.3 opponent leak — they concede 181.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
−1.8 at this ground — averages 12.8 there (44 gm)
vs them: averages 13.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▲opponent ▼venue ▼projection ▼
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o14.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.4°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.9 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tolutauvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
173.5
96
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Tolutau 173.5/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
4.4
95
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Tolutau 4.4/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.8
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
8.8
29
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Tolutau 8.8/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.9
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
90
Triesneutral
44
4.0
Tolutau 0.5/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
89
Try Assistsneutral
56
3.5
Tolutau 0.5/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.9
96
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Tolutau 0.9/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
67
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Tolutau 0.6/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
49.4
89
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Tolutau 49.4/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.2
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Tolutau173.5
96
DOL1652.5
38
Tolutau 173.5/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1686.6
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Tolutau4.4
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Runs
181.6per game · league avg 185.9
#11 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Runs
At 4 Pines Park12.8(44)-0.9
Everywhere else13.7(56)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)12.7(9)-0.7
Dry games13.4(91)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Runs
Avg diff
-2.5
Avg diff %
-18%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08BRIXavier Willison13.315+13%
08-08BRIReece Walsh15.39-41%
08-08BRIKotoni Staggs12.89-29%
08-08BRIPayne Haas15.114-7%
08-08BRIPatrick Carrigan15.310-35%
08-08BRIDeine Mariner12.68-37%
07-31SGIValentine Holmes13.720+47%
07-31SGIToby Couchman14.47-52%
Similar = season average within ±2.2 of Tolutau's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown11.5